The Washington Post recently published an article based on a Cook Political Report outlining the history of the past six elections. Some of those facts are worth re-visiting because they’re sobering – and depressing.
19 states have gone for Democrats in each of the last six elections. Those 19 states account for a total of 242 electoral votes. Remember, a candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the Presidency. Unless something drastic happens, Democrats are historically 89% of the way to winning the Presidency just based on historical trends.
Republicans have 13 states that have voted for the Republican nominee for president in every election since 1992. Those 13 account for 102 electoral votes. Looking at that trend, Republicans are only 37% of the way to winning the Presidency based on the trend.
The numbers don’t add up to 100% because the Democratic trend line is for every election over the past six years and the Republican trend line is for every Presidential election since 1992.
My gut tells me the United States is still center-right conservative. The polls, however, show I’m wrong. Gallup polled last year showing 31% say they are socially liberal, 31% socially conservative. This is the first time conservatives have not outnumbered liberals although
conservatives maintain edge on economic issues.
If Donald Trump is the Republican nominee I believe Republicans will lose in an epic rout that affects the down ballot, too. Trump will drag the Republican brand and lose significantly to Hillary in the general election. History, however, is on Trump’s side, with no party winning a third term for decades with the exception of George H.W. Bush following Ronald Reagan’s second term. But I’m not convinced history will repeat that anomaly this year.
Trump’s problem is that he is not a genuine conservative, with a set of core, guiding principles of limited government, lower taxes, constitutionalism. His core principle is, as he admits, “deal-making.” His inability to present a stark contrast between himself and Hillary will lead to a Republican defeat.
Ted Cruz, however, is a principled conservative, anti-establishment Republican who told the voters of Texas what he would do if elected, and then actually proceeded to fill those promises. He will contrast starkly with Hillary Clinton’s establishment soul and her poor communications and relatable characteristics.
If you want to do your own analysis of the electoral votes – and the likelihood of either party winning – go play at the website, 270ToWin. But be prepared to be depressed.